Archive for November 13th, 2008
Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
If you are trying to sell a house, this chart might make it hard for you to sleep tonight. It shows what you’re up against. The figures come from a Nov. 1-8 nationwide survey of real estate agents conducted by Campbell Communications and sponsored by the publication Inside Mortgage Finance. More than 2,500 agents participated.
As you can see, 29% of all sales in September and October were REO–real estate owned. That means the previous owners lost the houses in foreclosure and the current owners–usually banks–were unloading them. Another 12% were short sales. That means the current owners were selling them for less than the money owed on the mortgage(s).
In other words, about 4 in 10 sales were by people who were highly motivated to get rid of the properties even if they couldn’t get very high prices. That helps explain why ordinary sellers are having such a hard time finding buyers. The chart calls them “non-distressed,” but a lot of them are feeling quite distressed anyway, thank you.
The survey also found that total sales fell 19% from September to October as economic and financial conditions worsened. It’s bad out there.
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Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
As government and industry scrambled to stem the housing crisis, another 84,868 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released Thursday.
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Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
Bill Conerly at Seeking Alpha has a good post today about how to deal with the excess housing supply. In a nutshell, he says helping people move from renting to owning isn’t the right solution because it will just exacerbate the oversupply of rental units. The only solution, in his view, is population growth. That takes time.
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Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
Mortgage rates fell for the second week in a row, finance firm Freddie Mac said Thursday, as the weakening economy resulted in the slowest pace of home purchase applications in nearly eight years.
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Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
The $189 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest and most closely watched pension fund in the country, has revealed a huge hit to its real estate portfolio. Its housing related assets are down 35% to $6.1 billion as of June 30. Until recently, the big fund was still reporting double-digit increases in its real estate investments. According to a report that will be presented to the fund’s investment committee on Nov. 17, CalPERS’ overall real estate portfolio is down 11.2% for the fiscal year that ended in June.
The fund seems to have made some very basic investment mistakes, including over concentration in its once red-hot home market of California. Among its biggest disappointments is a nearly $1 billion investment in a partnership involving homebuilder Lennar, forestry giant Weyerhaeuser and private equity firms Cerberus and MacFarlane Partners. That partnership, called Land Source, is now in bankruptcy. A report prepared for the fund by independent consultant Le Pastrier Development Consulting found that high-levels of leverage contributed to the volatility of the fund’s housing investments.
CalPERS, known for agitating for corporate governance changes at big companies it invests in, is adjusting its own policies in the wake of the real estate debacle. The fund is busily restructuring its partnerships to reduce debt. In the future, real estate investments will have to pass muster with an internal review committee, an independent fiduciary and a board consultant. CalPERS is still looking for a new chief investment officer. The fund’s previous top manager, Russell Read, bailed out last spring.
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Continue Reading November 13th, 2008
You might be surprised to learn that the California foreclosure rate actually decreased by 18% in October compared to September, according to RealtyTrac’s new report. But the news isn’t necessarily good.
The state’s filings have dropped for two straight months because of a new law that requires lenders to make a number of attempts to contact homeowners and then wait 30 days before issuing default notices. This has slowed down the number of foreclosures and will likely just delay the inevitable.
Despite the drop in the California rate, foreclosures nationwide increased 5% from the previous month and 25% from Oct. 2007, RealtyTrac said.
And the worst is likely on the way. Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s vice president of marketing, told me today that he expects a sharp increase in coming months as the economy worsens and more and more people lose jobs.
“Another wave right now is about to come, driven by the economic downturn,” Sharga said.
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